Simulating the atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle forcing with the UM-UKCA model: the role of detection method and natural variability

Abstract

…stratospheric solar responses diagnosed using both techniques largely agree with each other within the associated uncertainties; however, the results show that apparently different signals can be identified by the methods in the troposphere and in the tropical lower stratosphere. Lastly, we focus on the role of internal atmospheric variability on the detection of the 11-year solar responses by comparing the results diagnosed from individual model ensemble members (as opposed to those diagnosed from the full ensemble). We show overall agreement between the ensemble members in the tropical and mid-latitude mid-stratosphere-to-lower-mesosphere, but larger apparent differences at
NH high latitudes during the dynamically active season. Our results highlight the need for long data sets for confident detection of solar cycle impacts in the atmosphere, as well as for more research on possible interdependence of the solar cycle forcing with other atmospheric forcings and processes (e.g. QBO, ENSO… etc.).

acp-2018-129

Authors: Ewa M. Bednarz 1, Amanda C. Maycock 1,2, Paul J. Telford 1,2, Peter Braesicke 1,2, N. Luke Abraham 1,2
and John A. Pyle 1,2
1 Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
2 National Centre for Atmospheric Science – Climate, UK
now at: School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
now at: Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe, Germany
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2018-129

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Simulating the atmospheric response to the 11-year solar cycle forcing with the UM-UKCA model: the role of detection method and natural variability

 

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